Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings lineup advice for Saturday s MLB games

Fantasy women s basketball Maddy Siegrist among top fill-in options to replace Natasha Howard

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Eyes of Ranger are upon us

OK, who had Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez as the top-ranked pitcher in April? Yeah, me neither. According to the ESPN Player Rater, Suarez topped the list, followed by Shota Imanaga and Tyler Glasnow.

Suarez enters Saturday's home start against the San Francisco Giants with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP. He has started six games, with five wins and a no decision. Suarez has benefited from a .189 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 92.1% left on base mark, but a 2.37 xFIP and 2.37 SIERA indicate the fall will be cushioned once regression kicks in.

Suarez's strikeout rate is in line with his career trend. Fewer walks and a spike in ground ball rate are fueling his improvement and softening the likely regression. The main source of the regression will be BABIP. High ground ball rates limit homers, but they usually generate an above average BABIP. Suarez's career-high 60.8% ground ball rate should result in a BABIP well north of its .189 level. Over the previous three seasons, Suarez has induced grounders at a 54.5% clip, with the resulting .296 BABIP. Going forward, it's reasonable to expect a BABIP over 100 points higher than the current level.

It's fair to consider whether Suarez can maintain a career-best 3.5% walk rate level, which is less than half of the 8.6% mark he posted from 2021 to 2023. Sure, it's possible, but a move towards his recent career levels is likely.

With the above xFIP and SIERA based on current skill levels, there's a good chance they're undershooting what to expect from Suarez over the next five months. That said, there is ample evidence to increase expectations from drafting season. Suarez was probably deemed a streamer a month ago, but now instead of releasing him and hoping to reacquire for his next favorable outing, Suarez warrants being reserved between efforts.

Everything else you need to know for Saturday On Saturday, Suarez will be opposed by Keaton Winn (13.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Given, this isn't an ideal matchup, facing the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park, but Winn has tossed three straight quality starts, yielding just one run over six frames in each. He fanned only 15 in those 18 frames, but he also administered just three free passes. Perhaps this renders Winn as a better contrarian DFS play that traditional streaming option, but he's still in play for a fantasy spot start. Great Scott! The much-awaited debut for Christian Scott is on tap with the New York Mets promoting their top pitching prospect for Saturday's road date with the Tampa Bay Rays. Scott earned the nod with a 3.20 ERA and sparkling 0.72 WHIP over five starts for Triple-A Syracuse. The 24-year-old right-hander fanned 36 over 25⅓ frames, while issuing just six walks. The Rays check in with the league's sixth-lowest wOBA and strikeout rate, landing Scott as the slate's top-ranked streamer. Sticking with Rays-Mets tilt, the Mets have allowed a league-leading 42 steals while throwing out just one. Meanwhile, the Rays have swiped the sixth-most bases, so look for them to try to rattle Scott by being active on the bases. Jose Caballero (15.7% rostered), Jose Siri (2.2% rostered) and Richie Palacios (1.4% rostered) are the primary pilfer targets. Anyone whose strategy involves streaming pitching knows to check out who is scheduled to face the Chicago White Sox. On Saturday, Lance Lynn (44.9% rostered) and the St. Louis Cardinals will entertain the White Sox. Lynn has recorded a tidy 2.05 ERA over his past four starts, albeit with a slightly high 1.32 WHIP, fueled by 11 walks over those 22 stanzas. Lynn's pedestrian 17 strikeouts in that span warns of an ERA correction, but he should be safe for a start. The White Sox will bring the league's lowest wOBA into Busch Stadium. The next two best teams to target as streaming opposition are the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics. The two offensively challenged clubs square off the Coliseum with Paul Blackburn (31.4% rostered) getting the nod for the home team while Trevor Rogers (2.8% rostered) takes the hill for the guests. Both are in play for a fantasy spot start, with Rogers landing a few spots ahead of Blackburn on today's rankings.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning. 

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. 

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 32%) at Andrew Abbott Carlos Correa (MIN, SS -- 47%) vs. Chase Anderson Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) vs. Anderson Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) vs. Erick Fedde Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 4%) vs. Michael King Luis Rengifo (LAA, 2B -- 36%) at Ben Lively Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 44%) vs. Tobias Myers Tyler Freeman (CLE, 3B -- 5%) vs. Reid Detmers Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 19%) vs. Fedde Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) at Michael Wacha Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 69%) at Pablo Lopez Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 56%) at Clarke Schmidt Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 52%) at Jared Jones Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) vs. Keaton Winn J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 92%) vs. Winn Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) at Abbott Jorge Soler (SF, RF -- 67%) at Ranger Suarez Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) vs. King Marcell Ozuna (ATL, DH -- 95%) at Tyler Glasnow Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 53%) at Wacha